The concept of deterrence is at the core of three very different current events – the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey; Russia’s war against Ukraine; and U.S. negotiations to consolidate peace with Iran.
Through deterrence, America and its allies preserve or secure peace by convincing potential adversaries that the costs of escalation outweigh any possible gains. Deterrence is among the greatest victories in American national security – and it’s often invisible and usually difficult to quantify.
Successes are the crises that never erupt, the conflicts that are averted, the allies who stand with the United States, and the adversaries who understand that aggression will fail. These quiet national security accomplishments don’t make headlines but reflect the highest achievement of American leadership – preserving peace and containing conflict. Stopping a problem before it starts.
Deterrence is the principle behind the NATO alliance, where members at the upcoming summit will discuss their commitment to increased national defense spending, expanded allied military readiness, and maintaining a robust military posture to ensure adversaries understand that any aggression against the alliance won’t succeed.
It’s particularly important in the face of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Coordinated international military and economic support for Ukraine not only helps Kyiv defend itself but also prevents potential further Russian escalation against NATO members. Similarly, the newly initiated 60-day negotiations with Iran are focused on deterrence, seeking a negotiated reduction in tensions while maintaining credible military and economic pressure.
With robust deterrence, America doesn’t expend national assets to safeguard our own security, but instead leverages its leadership. At our best, the United States unites allies, builds coalitions and mobilizes diplomatic, economic, and intelligence tools alongside military capabilities.
Following the Second World War, the United States, together with like-minded nations globally, built an international order grounded in deterrence, based on alliances and rooted in shared values.
But a healthy international order isn’t magically self-sustaining.
As strategic competitors challenge the world order through a malign alignment coagulating economic coercion, military proxies and weapons trade, and manipulation of information, the United States can refocus on the daily work of deterrence – work that begins long before any shot is fired.
To the casual observer, the overwhelming military might of the United States may appear to be a tool of first resort – the immediate answer to every problem. Certainly, the foundation of American security is based on our extraordinary armed forces.
But professional diplomacy, timely intelligence, and nuanced strategic communications reduce misunderstandings and help to resolve disputes before crises escalate. Diplomacy can create unity rather than hesitation. Intelligence provides insight to act early rather than react late, and consistent communication denies adversaries chance to exploit confusion.
Recent conflicts demonstrate that deterrence is strongest when every instrument of national power works together, and that national power is harnessed to alliances and partnerships around the world.
The United States can take two steps to strengthen deterrence for the decades ahead.
First, reinvest in American alliances and partnerships as a core element of national security. America is stronger with friends. The NATO summit is a perfect example, although the United States benefits from relationships on every continent.
Alliances aren’t charity, but strategic assets that extend American influence, foil adversaries’ calculations, and reduce the likelihood of armed conflict. Alliances create the environment for the sustained diplomatic engagement, military interoperability, and intelligence-sharing that strengthen the credibility that effective deterrence requires.
Second, and domestically, reinforce the tools that already exist by deepening the integration of diplomacy, intelligence, strategic communication, economic tools, and military planning.
Deterrence is a whole-of-government mission grounded in prosaic coordination among civilian agencies, the military, and the private sector. Preventing conflict requires unity-of-effort long before a crisis develops. Of course, coordination isn’t fun, and wrangling endless interagency equities is exhausting and time-consuming and can be tedious. However, this is a case when the process is the result. Coordination is cohesion, and when experts practice together, they grow stronger together.
Of course, diplomacy, intelligence, communications, and military power are tools – and tools alone cannot prevent tomorrow’s conflicts. America’s greatest strategic advantage has never simply been what we do. It has been about who we are – America’s ability to lead. To convene and inspire allies. To forge partnerships based on aspirations, shared values and goals.
Even in today’s complex geopolitical landscape, there is no formal or informal alignment of adversaries that can match the network of trusted relationships the United States has painstakingly built over generations. Our partners and allies are links in the chainmail that amplify American power – the strength that deters adversaries – state and nonstate actors – from bullying or attempting to isolate individual nations.
The measure of American national security should be how many conflicts it can prevent, not how many conflicts it can fight. In an increasingly dangerous world, deterrence remains our most effective strategy for preserving peace, and American leadership remains its indispensable foundation.
