Monthly Immigration Update: Oct. 2025

Policymaking often comes down to tradeoffs, and immigration is no different. Consider the following questions:

• If we have a slightly more welcoming asylum policy, how many more people will attempt to cross the border who would not otherwise qualify for protection?
• If we make it too difficult for American farmers to hire foreign labor, how much of our food supply are we willing to import instead?

I could ask each reader of this newsletter many questions like this, and I suspect that I’d get a wide and fascinating range of responses on the finer points of immigration policy. Differences of opinion on these details are good and healthy, but ultimately policymakers have to make tough calls to balance the competing interests for the good of all of us.

We are seeing these tradeoffs play out in real time on immigration enforcement, as the current administration is pursuing a maximum enforcement policy. Many types of immigrants are targeted beyond those with a criminal record. Some do not have legal status but have worked in the U.S. for decades. Others have temporary legal status, like parole or a pending asylum request. Student visa holders have been arrested and detained; so have legal permanent residents who thought they were eligible for U.S. citizenship. Even some U.S. citizens have been caught up in the campaign.

The tradeoffs to this maximum enforcement strategy are numerous, but the public safety cost may be the most troubling. Thousands of federal agents whose work focuses on truly heinous criminals have been reassigned to immigration enforcement. Prosecutions for federal drug crimes are down significantly while agents work to detain more immigrants. Public safety threats should be pursued vigorously regardless of nationality.

Given this data, we should all ask ourselves what we think is the appropriate tradeoff between immigration enforcement and domestic criminal enforcement. Both are important, and finding the right balance is tricky.

Figure of the Month

7,500

The Trump Administration plans to set the refugee cap to a record low of 7,500 admissions for fiscal year 2026 – a 94% drop from this fiscal year’s ceiling of 125,000. According to Reuters, the policy will prioritize white South Africans.

Data Dive

• Remittances to some Latin American countries are seeing double-digit increases and are on track to reach an estimated $161 billion by year’s end. Immigrants from Haiti, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, fearing their time in the U.S. will be cut short, are wiring billions of dollars back to their home countries to keep their earnings safe.

• According to a recent survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, about six in 10 Americans think that legal immigrants represent a “major benefit” to the country’s economic growth – a 50% increase from March 2024. Half of the public also believes that American companies stand to benefit from the expertise of skilled foreign-born workers in fields like science and technology.

• The number of international students traveling to the U.S. in August 2025 dropped by 19% compared with August 2024, the biggest decline ever registered outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest drops were from Asia (-24%) and Africa (-32%).

What I’m Reading

• The Institute for Progress (IFP) launched a new resource, the OPT Observatory, using Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) data to uncover hidden patterns in America’s international talent pipeline. While great for data nerds, the clear visual presentation makes this a solid resource for anyone looking to learn more about skilled immigration to the U.S.

• The Free Press reports on the fear immigrants in Iowa feel this year. “Whether they have a green card, a temporary work permit, a pending asylum claim, or are in the U.S. legally and seeking a way to stay, the immigrants we talked to said they are terrified that ICE could detain and deport them at any moment. Even those who have become U.S. citizens said they were too afraid to let us publish their names.”

• NBC News reports that Immigration and Customs Enforcement will offer unaccompanied minors 14 and older a $2500 stipend if they agree to voluntarily depart the U.S.

• The Wall Street Journal editorial board writes that not welcoming immigrants is shortsighted for America’s future prosperity and competitiveness, noting that among the nine winners of this year’s three Nobel science categories, six were U.S. residents – three of whom are immigrants. “Nobel prizes in the sciences are the result of intellectual capital built over decades of hard work and research. The U.S. will get fewer in the future if the Trump Administration won’t welcome legal immigrants and refugees,” the editorial board writes.

• According to a recent court filing, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is planning to reopen the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program to new applicants after more than four years. Approved DACA recipients would be eligible for deportation protections and work permits in all states except for Texas, which has been able to convince federal courts that it has been harmed by the program.

• In Chicago’s South Shore neighborhood, an overnight immigration raid by federal agents with multiple agencies led to 37 people arrested, but many more were dragged from their apartments and detained for hours. “Rodrick Johnson, 67, is one of many residents who were detained by federal agents during the South Shore raid. A U.S. citizen, he said agents broke through his door and dragged him out in zip ties. Johnson said he was left tied up outside the building for nearly three hours before agents finally let him go.”

• The administration has revived family separations as part of its immigration enforcement policy, according to a Guardian investigation. Leaked data show more than 2,000 minors, including infants, have entered detention since January 2025.

• A new study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) found that when companies face limits on hiring foreign-born talent, they turn to acquisitions – an expensive and complex alternative – to fill skill gaps.

Bush Institute Insights

• In my latest essay, I analyze the new presidential proclamation imposing a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas. I argue that, rather than strengthening the U.S. economy, this policy will discourage skilled workers from migrating to the country, shrink the talent pool available to American companies, increase offshoring, and cause the U.S. to lose top talent to competitors like China.

• My colleague Nicole Bibbins Sedaca and I recently co-authored a piece for The Hill where we highlighted the troubling inconsistencies between American human rights and immigration policy. Deporting people to dangerous countries is both inhumane and at odds with America’s democratic values.

• I contributed to a Charlotte Observer article that debunked claims suggesting border crossings had fallen to zero in recent months. While border encounters are indeed lower than last year, that’s not necessarily a reason to celebrate. The decline may reflect waning confidence in the U.S. economy or, more troublingly, in the enduring promise of the American dream.

• The rights and well-being of Africans across the continent have a direct impact on peace and prosperity in the United States and around the world and can curb mass migration, bolster security and resilience, and promote trade and economic growth. The Bush Institute’s new series, Unparalleled Partnerships with Africa, spotlights the importance of U.S. engagement on the continent, especially as China and Russia move in.

Upcoming Events:

• Nov. 12 – Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy: The Long-Term Impact of Trump’s Immigration Policies