Insights from Bush Institute immigration expert Laura Collins
The incoming Trump Administration and allies have reiterated support for campaign promises to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. In response to questions about the cost, the President-elect told NBC News that the price doesn’t matter.
At the Bush Institute, we believe that the cost to deport millions does matter. Removing millions of workers from the labor force – without an actionable plan to replace them – will cost the U.S. trillions in GDP.
Immigration enforcement isn’t inherently evil. Administrations from both parties have deported people in accordance with the law. (Immigration and Customs Enforcement provides excellent stats on enforcement, removal, detentions, and expulsions.)
Immigration policy that neglects the economy doesn’t benefit America. For the health of the American economy, we should all hope that the new administration is as enthusiastic about legal immigration as it is about enforcement.
Figure of The Month
15.6%
The U.S. foreign-born population increased to 15.6% in 2024, the highest in the nation’s modern history.
Data Dive
- Alternative legal pathways work: U.S. Border Patrol data shows a 98% drop in encounters with migrants from Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti, and Nicaragua over the past two years. Analysts attribute this decrease to the Biden Administration’s use of legal pathways, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy, and greater cooperation with Mexico. These initiatives now permit 30,000 individuals from these nations to legally enter the U.S. each month with work authorization.
- A new Data for Progress survey finds limited support for mass deportations beyond recent border crossers (70%) and those with nonviolent criminal records (67%). Only a minority support deporting individuals with Temporary Protected Status (21%), long-pending asylum applicants (20%), and those brought to the U.S. as children (19%).
- Bloomberg reports that, under the Biden Administration, the number of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) immigrants has risen to over 863,000, with many filling open jobs in essential sectors like construction and home care.
- Border wall falls along the U.S.-Mexico border have increased by 58% in 2024, with Scripps Mercy Hospital and UC San Diego Medical Center treating 993 cases with severe injuries this year. Increased falls are linked to shifted migration routes and complex smuggling operations.
- A new analysis by the American Immigration Council shows a 46% increase in certified temporary non-agricultural H-2B workers from FY 2018 to FY 2023, highlighting a growing reliance on these workers across diverse U.S. regions.
What I’m Reading
- CBS News reports from Nogales, Mexico about migrants who have been waiting for months for CBP One appointments so they may legally enter the U.S. to request asylum. They fear the incoming administration may end CBP One, a life line for thousands who seek a new life in the U.S.
- Most of us are familiar with the promises to remove millions of undocumented immigrants when the new administration takes office. What else is planned? According to CNN, plans include the return of “remain in Mexico,” revoking humanitarian parole programs, mandatory detention, and family detention. To pay for it, the new administration will seek a national emergency declaration and reprogram agency funding.
- Immigration lawyers fear Operation Lone Star is positioned to help the new administration accomplish its goals on mass deportations, according to the Texas Tribune. While possible, it’s worth noting that local law enforcement cooperation in Texas with Immigration and Customs Enforcement isn’t new. Several communities in Texas participate in 287(g), the program by which ICE delegates certain immigration officer functions to state and local law enforcement partners.
- Advocates fear the Biden Administration’s executive order restricting asylum at the border and ramping up deportations provided tools the incoming administration can use to quickly implement its own more restrictive border policies.
Bush Institute Insights
- I recently spoke with journalist Catherine Shoichet who published an insightful feature article on CNN where she breaks down the prohibitive costs of a mass deportation plan.
- I also discussed with Bloomberg’s Julia Love how Texas industries are preparing for the workplace raids promised by the incoming administration.
