What’s happening?
China has continued to aggressively militarize the South China Sea and inflame tensions with other coastal nations. In April, Chinese coast guard ships performed progressively reckless maneuvers and repeatedly attempted to ram Philippine vessels in the South China Sea. This was due to the Philippine coast guard contacting the Chinese ships and informing them that they were patrolling illegally in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Under current international law, these zones extend no more than 200 nautical miles from the coast and grant the state — in this case the Philippines — exclusive rights to the resources within its boundaries.
China’s reckless behavior has been consistent. In September 2024, a Chinese ship rammed a Philippine coast guard vessel while a U.S. news crew filming 60 Minutes was on board, severely damaging the ship. Since 2022, these confrontations have become the norm, as China has illegally claimed sovereignty of over 90% of the South China Sea. This increasing aggression from Beijing has cast doubts on the ability of the U.S. and its allies in the region to continue to deter Chinese advancements and halt democratic decline.
Why it matters
The South China Sea is an important trade route that is estimated to carry around 24% of global maritime trade worth about $7.4 trillion per year. This area also includes an estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Beijing’s claim, known as the “nine-dash line” contradicts competing sovereignty claims from Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
In 2013, the Philippines initiated a lawsuit with the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague concerning historic rights to natural resources within its EEZ in the South China Sea. In July 2016, the court released a ruling that under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), China’s claims to the territory under the nine-dash line had no legal basis. Furthermore, the court ruled that the Chinese government was violating Philippine sovereignty by continuing to interfere with activities in the South China Sea. This ruling was legally binding, due to Beijing’s ratification of UNCLOS. Despite the ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration, however, Beijing continues its assertiveness in the South China Sea.
Bottom line
China’s continued illegal activities in the South China Sea and refusal to adhere to the rule of law are a threat to freedom and democracy worldwide. If the situation continues to escalate as it has been, it could significantly increase the risk of conflict and instability in the region, which would have serious ramifications for the global community and the international rule of law. Were Beijing to dominate the South China Sea, it would make it difficult for the United States to carry out its objectives in the region. For example, it would become much more difficult to intervene if conflict arose between China and Taiwan, which could encourage Beijing to carry out its threats of invasion.
America’s relationships with like-minded allies offer the most effective defense the United States has against China’s authoritarian reach in the South China Sea. Working to strengthen these relationships in the Indo-Pacific will be vital to curbing China’s influence and deterring the rise of a China-led global axis of authoritarianism.
This can be accomplished by augmenting security relationships with partner states such as the Philippines and bolstering U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific. For example, building additional military bases and conducting more freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) would be effective strategies to protect U.S. interests and allies in the South China Sea. Maintaining a strong military presence with allies will be the most powerful deterrence against further Chinese encroachment.
